Tulelake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS66 KMFR 100338
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
838 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Marine Discussion.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Wednesday, April 9th...The sea state will
continue to lower slightly tonight. Then, a cold front will move
into the waters by Thursday morning. The front will bring chances
of marine showers and gusty southerly winds to the waters. These
winds are expected to build steep seas in all waters Thursday into
Thursday night. A coastal jet could bring a period with gusts of
35- 40 kts north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm from shore in the
late morning and into the early afternoon hours, but widespread
gale conditions are not forecast.

Below advisory conditions return early Friday morning. However,
north winds will increase Friday afternoon and evening for areas
south of Cape Blanco and steep seas may develop. North winds
increase and seas build into the weekend. Steep seas and gusty north
winds are likely south of Cape Blanco on Saturday, then winds and
seas may increase further on Sunday across the waters.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025/

UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will persist areawide
through most this evening. MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to
develop along the coast after 06z and continue  Thursday morning.
There is also a low chance (15%) of MVFR/IFR conditions at KRBG
early Thursday morning. A front will approach and rain will move
onshore Thursday morning with continued MVFR and area of IFR
expected along the  coast. Rain will spread into the coastal
mountains and portions of Douglas County Thursday afternoon with
local MVFR and mountain obscurations. Otherwise, expect continued
VFR elsewhere. Breezy to gusty afternoon winds are expected on
Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025/

DISCUSSION...

Overview:

Not a lot has changed with this forecast from the previous line
of thinking. We are still expecting a very spring-like forecast
with rounds of disturbances resulting in cloudy days and light
precipitation followed by warm-ups and nice weather. We will
essentially flip between these scenarios through at least early
next week. Through this stretch we are also looking at seasonable
temperatures with the "coldest" day still expected Sunday morning
where we could see some isolated areas of freezing temperatures on
the westside (teens and 20s for the eastside). For the most part,
not seeing any noteworthy impacts other than the chance of
frost/freeze temperatures; rain and snow accumulations are not
expected to warrant any widespread hazards. However, the
combination of snowmelt and rainfall could lead to some isolated
river rises with the Sprague River likely to however around minor
flood stage starting this weekend.

Further Details:

Water vapor imagery shows a steady stream of moisture from the
Pacific within a flow pattern that is transitioning to a ridge.
Not expecting any rainfall today. This ridge will slide east
tomorrow, and this will allow for some dynamics from an incoming
trough to help produce some light showers across the area
tomorrow. These showers could linger into Friday as well. After
Friday, we are looking at a chance for several days of dry weather
for most of the forecast area. In fact, there could be several
days of minimum RH values around the upper teens to 20 percent for
areas mainly east of the coastal ranges. Time will tell how fuels
react to this stretch of dry weather, but it is a reminder that
fire weather season is not too far away.

The probability for temperatures of 32 or lower have decreased
slightly for westside areas; however, any backyard gardeners or
those with agricultural interest need to know we are expecting
isolated areas of frost/freeze this weekend. Preparations for
sensitive vegetation may be prudent this weekend, especially
Sunday when we are expecting the "coldest" morning of this
forecast.

-Guerrero


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$